2008 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Survey
Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. Why Investors Care

Released on 5/17/07 For May 2007
General Business Conditions Index - Level
 Actual 4.2  
 Consensus 3.0  
 Consensus Range 2.0  to  8.0  
 Previous 0.2  

Highlights
Resumption of growth is the theme in the manufacturing sector, indicated by ISM data, yesterday's industrial production report, and today's Philadelphia Federal Reserve index which rose to 4.2 in May, up from a nearly dead-flat 0.2 gain in April. May's index for new orders was especially positive, at 8.7 vs. 2.8 in April. Employment was also strong at 12.9 vs. 2.5.

High energy prices are hitting input prices, at 32.3 vs. 24.3, though they have yet to inflate output prices, at 2.2 vs. April's 5.2. Inventories contracted for a third month while delivery times extended a long string of improvement, signaling clear conditions in the supply chain.

Markets showed no immediate reaction to the results, which nevertheless may help the stock market through the afternoon. After a flat opening to the year, the nation's manufacturing sector appears to be picking up steam.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index inched up to 13.2 in April from a level of 12.3 in March. The index is at relatively low levels compared with a year ago, but remains in the slightly positive range. The prices received index was nearly unchanged from March, but the prices paid index jumped sharply - likely related to energy costs.

Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for May 07: 3.0
Range: 2.0 to 8.0
Trends
[Chart] The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/18 2/15 3/15 4/19 5/17 6/21 7/19 8/16 9/20 10/18 11/15 12/20
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


 
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