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NAPM-Chicago
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Definition
The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
2/28/06
For
Feb 2006 |
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Business Barometer Index, Level
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| Actual |
54.9
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| Consensus |
59.0
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| Consensus Range |
56.5
to
60.0
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| Previous |
61.7
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Highlights
The Chicago purchasers' report showed a sharp slowdown in the region's business activity during February, with the index falling 3.6 percentage points to an eight-month low 54.9. New orders showed a big drop, down to 54.9 from 63.7 and pointing to slowing growth in production for the months ahead. February's production index fell to 56.0 from 60.6. Note that readings over 50 indicate that a greater proportion of respondents are reporting month-to-month increases than decreases.
There were two positive readings in the report: a rise in employment to 56.0 from 53.9 and a rise in backlog orders to 50.6 from 48.3. Prices paid fell 3.7 percentage points but still came in at a nose-bleed of 71.6. High costs for energy and raw materials continue to be a chief feature of the business cycle.
Chicago data are always closely watched by the markets and are likely to confirm expectations for no more than a steady reading in tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
The NAPM-Chicago's business barometer fell more than 2 points in January to 58.5. This index, which measures both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, is often considered a leading indicator for the ISM manufacturing index. The New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys were higher in February than in January.
NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for Feb 06: 59 Range: 56.5 to 60
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Trends
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The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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