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NAPM-Chicago
Definition
The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care

Released on 4/28/06 For Apr 2006
Business Barometer Index, Level
 Actual 57.2  
 Consensus 58.0  
 Consensus Range 56.0  to  61.0  
 Previous 60.4  

Highlights
Chicago purchasers reported slowing but still very strong growth in April, at an index of 57.2 vs. 60.4 in March. New orders dipped back only a bit, to 60.8 vs. 62.2 though backlog orders plunged to 44.8 vs. 51.6, the lowest reading in three years.

Delivery delays eased sharply to 52.7 vs. 61.9 to indicate a smoother flow in the supply chain and a decline consistent with slower overall activity. Inventories were about unchanged, showing modest accumulation that likely reflects intentional stocking in expectation of future shipments.

Employment was a negative, down to 47.2 vs. 55.6 in a reading, the lowest in nearly 2 years, that may cut into forecasts for next week's employment report, which economists will be posting this afternoon. But the biggest negative was a jump in prices paid to 77.2 vs. 71.1, a reflection no doubt of rising fuel costs.

The report, an early barometer of April activity, stands out for its lack of strength, a contrast to this week's run of mostly strong data. Bonds firmed in reaction to the report, even though the price reading is a negative. The dollar slipped. National purchasing reports will be issued next week by the Institute For Supply Management (ISM).

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The NAPM-Chicago's business barometer increased more than 5 percentage points in March to 60.4. This index, which measures both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, is often considered a leading indicator for the ISM manufacturing index. Its monthly changes are often larger in magnitude than the ISM index.

NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for Apr 06: 58
Range: 56 to 61
Trends
[Chart] The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2006 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/31 4/28 5/31 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/29 10/31 11/30 12/28
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


 
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