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NAPM-Chicago
Definition
The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care

Released on 7/31/06 For Jul 2006
Business Barometer Index, Level
 Actual 57.9  
 Consensus 55.5  
 Consensus Range 53.4  to  57.0  
 Previous 56.5  

Highlights
Chicago purchasers reported steady and healthy acceleration in business conditions during July with their index rising to 57.9 vs. 56.5 in June. A year ago, the index was at 62.1. New orders for July, the most important sub-index, rose nearly 3 percentage points to 60.0 and point to accelerating business activity in the months ahead. But order backlogs plunged nearly 10 points to show month-to-month contraction at 48.2. Inventories also contracted, down more than 5 points to 48.7 and in a drawdown perhaps tied to the working down of backlogs. Employment continues to be soft, up one tenth in the month to 50.5.

Astronomical is the only way to describe the prices paid index, which came in at 86.8 vs. 89.0 in June. These levels reflect wide month-to-month reports of rising input costs with 65 percent reporting higher prices in July, 32 percent reporting no change, and only 3 percent reporting a decline. The latest data won't ease prospects for continued cost pressures in the national purchaser surveys from the Institute For Supply Management, data to be released Tuesday and Thursday this week.

The risk that high energy prices are beginning to show up in final prices is a central concern for the Federal Reserve and whether it will have to continue to raise rates at next week's policy meeting. Bonds dipped in reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago NAPM purchasing index dropped to 56.5 in June from to 61.5 in May but remained in positive territory. The softening was led by new orders. In contrast, the prices paid index soared to 89.0 from 76.9. This regional index continues to be softer on the output side than national industrial production and on the high side for prices paid.

NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for July 06: 55.5
Range: 53.4 to 57.0
Trends
[Chart] The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2006 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/31 4/28 5/31 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/29 10/31 11/30 12/28
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


 
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