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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care
| Released on 12/28/06 For Dec 2006 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
December saw a strong rise in Chicago area business activity with the overall index at 52.4 vs. November's 49.9. Purchasers reported a rise in orders (57.8 Dec. vs. 52.0 Nov.) and a rise in production (56.2 vs. 54.4). In more good news, inventories were worked down (49.5 vs. 57.7), and along with the rise in new orders, should ease worries of supply overhang.
Other results included new weakness in employment (45.8 vs. 49.4) and no change in prices paid at 60.2.
The data were released alongside strong existing home sale and consumer confidence data, but the Treasury market may have keyed on the Chicago report which is watched as a barometer of the subsequent national business reports from the Institute For Supply Management, especially the manufacturing survey which opens the New Year calendar. Treasuries were down and the dollar up this morning.
The NAPM-Chicago purchasing managers' index came in at 49.9 in November - an essentially "no change" reading for manufacturing. New orders were slightly on the positive side of the break-even point while backlogs were slightly into negative territory. Now that manufacturing is in on the soft landing, it also is important that this sector not turn significantly negative. We have recently seen weak numbers for the Philly Fed manufacturing index and in the Census Bureau's durable goods orders series. Markets will be watching the Chicago index and other regional surveys for early warnings of weakening in manufacturing that is significant enough to turn the soft landing into a hard one.
NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for December 06: 50.0
Range: 48.0 to 53.5
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The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance. |
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