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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/13/07 For May 2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Highlights
Retail sales were red hot in May. Overall retail sales rebounded 1.4 percent in May, following a 0.1 percent dip in April. The consensus had expected a 0.6 percent boost for the latest month. For the latest month, gains were led by gasoline sales but increases were widespread and robust. Gasoline stations sales continued to be boosted by higher gasoline prices. Excluding gas, retail sales advanced 1.2 percent in May, after a 0.2 percent decline in April. Excluding both motor vehicles and gas stations, sales rebounded 1.0 percent, following a 0.2 percent drop the month before. The market had projected a 0.7 percent jump in sales excluded motor vehicles and gas station sales. In addition to gasoline sales, components that were particularly strong were clothing, building materials, motor vehicles, and sporting goods. No major categories declined.
Year-on-year, overall retail sales in May jumped to up 5.0 percent from up 3.1 percent in April. Excluding motor vehicles, May's year-on-year sales increased to up 4.6 percent, compared to up 3.4 percent in April. Excluding motor vehicles and gas station sales, year-on-year sales in May were up 4.7 percent, compared to up 3.8 percent in April.
Today's report will likely weigh heavily on the bond market and should boost rates. In turn, the dollar could firm. For equities, the May retail sales number will raise fears of further Fed tightening and equities could move down even though they show a strong consumer sector.
Retail Sales were weak in April, declining 0.2 percent, following a 1.0 percent spike in March. April saw declines in key categories of motor vehicles and general merchandise. Gasoline stations sales jump, boosted in part by higher gasoline prices. Excluding gas, retail sales posted an even steeper decline of 0.4 percent. Excluding both motor vehicles and gas stations, sales slipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.9 percent surge in March. May's employment report suggests that the consumer sector is still healthy as do recent initial jobless claims. These fundamentals should support retail sales in April.
Retail sales Consensus Forecast for May 07: +0.6 percent
Range: -0.3 to +0.8 percent
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Consensus Forecast for May 07: +0.7 percent
Range: +0.3 to +1.2 percent
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes. |
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