2017 Economic Calendar
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Released On 4/13/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.3 %0.0 %-0.2 % to 0.1 %-0.1 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change2.2 %2.3 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.0 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change1.5 %1.6 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change1.8 %1.7 %

Inflation at the wholesale level is more subdued than expected, falling 0.1 percent in March vs Econoday's consensus for no change. When excluding food and also oil which fell sharply in March, prices were unchanged vs expectations for a 0.2 percent increase.

Softness is spread throughout the report with both goods and services coming in at minus 0.2 percent. Two factors that did move went in opposite directions with food up 0.9 percent in the month and energy down 2.9 percent.

Year-on-year rates edged higher but reflect, not current pressure, but easy comparisons with very low levels this time last year. Still, the overall rate came in at 2.3 percent for the highest reading in 5 years.

The lack of pressure in services points to a general lack of price traction consistent with sluggish demand. Today's report may lower expectations for tomorrow's consumer price report where, like this report, a no change headline is the consensus with the ex-food and energy reading seen at plus 0.2 percent.

Consensus Outlook
Higher energy was a main factor in February's 0.3 percent increase in producer prices with lower energy pointing to a flat March. Service prices were also a main factor in the February increase and a second month of pressure here could raise expectations for pass through to consumer prices. Forecaster see the PPI-FD headline for March unchanged with less energy and food seen at plus 0.2 percent. When excluding food, energy & trade services, the Econoday consensus gain is also 0.2 percent. Like the CPI and PCE price indexes, the year-on-year rate for the PPI-FD is at a 5-year high, at 2.2 percent in February.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Year-on-year change, both overall and when excluding food and energy, offers a more accessible view of trends than month-to-month change.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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