2017 Economic Calendar
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PPI-FD  
Released On 12/12/2017 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change2.8 %3.1 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.4 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change2.4 %2.4 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.4 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change2.3 %2.4 %

Highlights
Hints of inflation have been appearing in producer prices including the November report where the headline rose a firm 0.4 percent for a third month in a row and the year-on-year rate, up 3 tenths to 3.1 percent, is the highest in nearly 6 years.

Pass through from higher oil prices lifted wholesale gasoline prices by 15.8 percent in the month with fruits, up 3.9 percent, and vegetables, up 2.4 percent, also showing pressure. Light trucks also show strength, up 1.1 percent, with legal services extending a strong 3-month run, up 1.1 percent and a reminder that recent producer price reports have been showing emerging strength for trade service prices. But outside of legal services, other service prices were flat in November with hospital care down 0.2 percent and total trade services down 0.3 percent but following gains of 1.1 and 0.8 percent in October and September.

Yet November's report is about price traction underscored by a 1.7 percent rise for finished consumer goods which are up a very solid 5.3 percent year-on-year. The results should firm expectations for a 0.4 percent headline in tomorrow's consumer price report and perhaps point to a higher-than-expected core rate where Econoday's call is for a 0.2 percent gain. Yet today's report aside, inflation hasn't been living up to expectations but with the economy at full employment, the Fed appears certain to raise rates at tomorrow's FOMC.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Inflation for wholesale trade services, which is considered an advanced indication for wider price pressures ahead, has been very evident in the last two producer price reports, helping both the overall headline and the less food and energy reading post 0.4 percent gains each in both October and September. Prices for legal services and healthcare showed special traction in October. A notch less strength is the call for November as forecasters see the PPI-FD rising 0.3 percent, the less food and energy rate up 0.2 percent, and also up 0.2 percent for less food, energy and trade services.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
A sluggish economy in 2013 and 2014 slowed inflation at the producer level.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/143/144/135/116/137/138/109/1310/1211/1412/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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