2018 Economic Calendar
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PPI-FD  
Released On 6/13/2018 8:30:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.1 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.5 %0.5 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change2.6 %3.1 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change2.3 %2.4 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change2.5 %2.6 %

Highlights
Large jumps for steel and aluminum and also the closely watched trade services category lead an overheated 0.5 percent rise in the producer price index for May. The results hit the top end of the Econoday consensus range as does a 0.3 percent increase when excluding food and also energy which rose a sharp 4.6 percent in May. When excluding food, energy and a striking 0.9 percent surge for trade services, the gain comes down to 0.1 percent.

Prices for steel mill products surged a monthly 4.3 percent following a 3.2 percent gain in April. Prices for aluminum mill shapes came in at an even hotter 5.0 percent monthly gain that follows April's 1.8 percent climb. Gains in metals are at the intermediate level but may already be affecting the finished level where goods prices rose a sharp 1.0 percent in the month.

Year-on-year rates in this report have been flat but they do show a pivot higher in May, to 3.1 percent which is the highest in 6 years. The rise in metals will be a general focus while for forecasters and Federal Reserve policy makers the gain that will get special attention is trade services, a reading that offers an indication of price change for wholesalers and retailers.

Consensus Outlook
Modest rates are expected for inflation at the wholesale level in May: at 0.3 percent for headline PPI-FD, at 0.2 percent excluding food and energy, and also at 0.2 percent when excluding food, energy and trade services. Steel and aluminum prices have been climbing but not enough yet to feed into overall producer inflation.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Year-on-year change, both overall and when excluding food and energy, offers a more accessible view of trends than month-to-month change.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/112/153/144/105/96/137/118/99/1210/1011/912/11
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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