2018 Economic Calendar
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PPI-FD  
Released On 7/11/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.5 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change3.1 %3.4 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change2.4 %2.8 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.2 %0.3 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change2.6 %2.7 %

Highlights
Services and metals are factors in June's producer price report where all three headline indexes -- overall, less food & energy, less food & energy & trade services -- rose 0.3 percent. Trade services, which tracks prices at wholesalers and retailers, jumped 0.7 percent in June on top of May's 0.9 percent gain. These strong increases are bound to raise eyebrows and raise the risk of inflation pass-through to the consumer.

Metals prices continue to show pressure with steel mill product prices up 1.9 in June following monthly gains of 4.3 percent, 3.2 percent and another 1.9 percent going back to March when import tariffs went into effect. Prices for aluminum mill shapes rose 2.1 percent following prior gains of 5.0, 1.8 and 2.1 percent, all very steep.

Energy also contributed to June's pressure, up 0.8 percent with gasoline 0.5 percent higher and home heating oil up 8.0 percent. Food is an offset, down 1.1 percent and reflecting a 13.8 percent plunge in vegetables and a 2.1 percent decline for food exports. Other readings in today's report include a 0.4 percent rise for cars and a 0.6 percent gain for light trucks.

Year-on-year rates are all on the climb with the headline and less & food energy rising to 3.4 and 2.8 percent respectively and with less food & energy & trade services up slightly to 2.7 percent. There are definitely signs, though limited of ones, of inflation in this report and may hint at higher-than-expected readings in tomorrow's consumer price report.

Consensus Outlook
Cooling to a 0.2 percent monthly increase is expected for the June producer price headline following a 0.5 percent surge in May that was fed by a jump for trade services (wholesalers and retailers) and included hikes for energy as well as steel and aluminum. When excluding food and energy, prices are expected to rise 0.3 percent with 0.2 percent the call when excluding food, energy and trade services.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Year-on-year change, both overall and when excluding food and energy, offers a more accessible view of trends than month-to-month change.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/112/153/144/105/96/137/118/99/1210/1011/912/11
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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