2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 9/6/2018 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.7 56.8 55.5  to 57.5 58.5 

Highlights
ISM's non-manufacturing sample reports sharp acceleration in overall growth during August, at an index of 58.5 vs July's 55.7 which easily tops Econoday's consensus range.

Strength is centered in orders with both new orders, at 60.4, and backlog orders, at 56.5, posting strong monthly gains. And a strong gain for new export orders, up 2.5 points to 60.5, is a special plus and one that underscores the importance of service exports for the U.S. economy.

Output for the sample also rose as did employment which came in at 56.7 for a 6 tenths increase from July and which offers a hint of accelerating strength for tomorrow's employment report. But there are signs of capacity stress in the report with input costs remaining elevated and supplier deliveries continuing to lengthen.

Comments from the sample's respondents continue to stress the negatives of tariffs on costs and production though the final effects are hard to see in the data. Sixteen of 17 industries tracked in this sample posted composite growth in August led by construction and then by transportation & warehousing with agriculture the only negative.

ISM's report includes both construction and mining and may explain its better performance than this morning's PMI from Markit Economics which tracks only services. But the bottom line for August is very solid economic strength for the bulk of the nation's economy.

Consensus Outlook
Re-acceleration is what forecasters expect for ISM's non-manufacturing index for August, at a consensus 56.8 vs a 55.7 in July that came in below Econoday's consensus range. Despite the softening in July, input costs continued to accelerate.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing index is an equally weighted composite of four separate components: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The report tracks 17 industries, 15 of which are from the services sector as well as mining and construction.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/53/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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